Confidence
What Jake Vig doesn't know just might get him killed. A sharp and polished grifter, Jake has just swindled thousands of dollars from the unsuspecting Lionel Dolby with the help of his crew. It becomes clear that Lionel wasn't just any mark, he was an accountant for eccentric crime boss Winston King. Jake and his crew will have to stay one step ahead of both the criminals and the cops to finally settle their debt.
Working with a mid-range budget of $15.0M, the film achieved a respectable showing with $23.0M in global revenue (+53% profit margin).
Plot Structure
Story beats plotted across runtime
Narrative Arc
Emotional journey through the story's key moments
Story Circle
Blueprint 15-beat structure
Arcplot Score Breakdown
Weighted: Precision (70%) + Arc (15%) + Theme (15%)
Confidence (2003) exhibits carefully calibrated plot construction, characteristic of James Foley's storytelling approach. This structural analysis examines how the film's 15-point plot structure maps to proven narrative frameworks across 1 hour and 37 minutes. With an Arcplot score of 6.8, the film balances conventional beats with creative variation.
Characters
Cast & narrative archetypes
Jake Vig
Lily
Morgan Price
Lionel Dolby
Gordo
Travis
Miles
Big Al
Main Cast & Characters
Jake Vig
Played by Edward Burns
A smooth-talking con artist who leads a crew of grifters and finds himself in over his head after scamming the wrong man.
Lily
Played by Rachel Weisz
A skilled pickpocket and Jake's love interest who proves to be more complex than she first appears.
Morgan Price
Played by Dustin Hoffman
A powerful and ruthless crime boss who becomes Jake's target and greatest threat.
Lionel Dolby
Played by Paul Giamatti
A corrupt LAPD agent who manipulates Jake into pulling off a dangerous con.
Gordo
Played by Paul Giamatti
Jake's loyal partner in crime and longtime friend who works the cons with him.
Travis
Played by Brian Van Holt
A meticulous accountant and member of Jake's crew who handles the financial details.
Miles
Played by Franky G
Another member of Jake's con crew who helps execute their elaborate schemes.
Big Al
Played by Louis Lombardi
Jake's mentor figure and an experienced con man who provides wisdom and guidance.
Structural Analysis
The Status Quo at 1 minutes (1% through the runtime) establishes Jake Vig and his crew successfully execute a smooth con in a hotel room, showcasing their expertise and chemistry as professional grifters living the high life.. The analysis reveals that this early placement immediately immerses viewers in the story world.
The inciting incident occurs at 13 minutes when Jake discovers their mark's money belonged to The King, a vicious crime boss. Big Al is murdered as a warning. Jake's world is shattered - they've accidentally crossed the most dangerous man in LA.. At 13% through the film, this Disruption is delayed, allowing extended setup of the story world. This beat shifts the emotional landscape, launching the protagonist into the central conflict.
The First Threshold at 24 minutes marks the transition into Act II, occurring at 25% of the runtime. This illustrates the protagonist's commitment to Jake actively chooses to commit to The King's plan and recruits Special Agent Gunther Butan from the LAPD as their inside man, crossing into a far more dangerous world of corrupted law enforcement and high-stakes crime., moving from reaction to action.
At 49 minutes, the Midpoint arrives at 50% of the runtime—precisely centered, creating perfect narrative symmetry. Significantly, this crucial beat False victory: Morgan Price takes the bait completely, agreeing to the currency exchange deal. The con appears to be working perfectly, but the stakes are raised when tensions with Butan and The King intensify., fundamentally raising what's at risk. The emotional intensity shifts, dividing the narrative into clear before-and-after phases.
The Collapse moment at 71 minutes (73% through) represents the emotional nadir. Here, The con goes wrong during the final exchange. Gunther Butan is killed, Lily appears to betray Jake, and Jake is shot. Everything falls apart - the whiff of death is literal as Jake bleeds out, his confidence shattered., reveals the protagonist at their lowest point. This beat's placement in the final quarter sets up the climactic reversal.
The Second Threshold at 77 minutes initiates the final act resolution at 79% of the runtime. Jake realizes the deeper game being played and synthesizes all the information. He understands the true nature of the con and who's been playing whom, gaining clarity to execute the final move., demonstrating the transformation achieved throughout the journey.
Emotional Journey
Confidence's emotional architecture traces a deliberate progression across 15 carefully calibrated beats.
Narrative Framework
This structural analysis employs proven narrative structure principles that track dramatic progression. By mapping Confidence against these established plot points, we can identify how James Foley utilizes or subverts traditional narrative conventions. The plot point approach reveals not only adherence to structural principles but also creative choices that distinguish Confidence within the action genre.
James Foley's Structural Approach
Among the 8 James Foley films analyzed on Arcplot, the average structural score is 7.0, reflecting strong command of classical structure. Confidence takes a more unconventional approach compared to the director's typical style. For comparative analysis, explore the complete James Foley filmography.
Comparative Analysis
Additional action films include The Bad Guys, Puss in Boots and Venom: The Last Dance. For more James Foley analyses, see The Corruptor, Fifty Shades Freed and The Chamber.
Plot Points by Act
Act I
SetupStatus Quo
Jake Vig and his crew successfully execute a smooth con in a hotel room, showcasing their expertise and chemistry as professional grifters living the high life.
Theme
Gordo warns Jake about getting too confident: "The minute you think you got it all figured out, that's when it all falls apart." The theme of hubris and overconfidence is established.
Worldbuilding
Establishes Jake's crew (Gordo, Miles, Big Al), their methods, the world of high-stakes cons, and Jake's confident leadership style. Shows their expertise and the rules of their criminal enterprise.
Disruption
Jake discovers their mark's money belonged to The King, a vicious crime boss. Big Al is murdered as a warning. Jake's world is shattered - they've accidentally crossed the most dangerous man in LA.
Resistance
Jake is forced to meet The King, who demands they pull off a major con to pay him back. Jake debates options, recruits pickpocket Lily, and reluctantly begins planning the elaborate revenge con against banker Morgan Price.
Act II
ConfrontationFirst Threshold
Jake actively chooses to commit to The King's plan and recruits Special Agent Gunther Butan from the LAPD as their inside man, crossing into a far more dangerous world of corrupted law enforcement and high-stakes crime.
Mirror World
Jake and Lily begin their romantic relationship. She represents genuine connection versus the fake relationships of con artistry, challenging Jake to consider trust and authenticity.
Premise
The elaborate con unfolds: seducing Morgan Price, setting up the counterfeit currency scheme, navigating dangerous relationships with The King and Butan. The fun of watching professional grifters work their magic.
Midpoint
False victory: Morgan Price takes the bait completely, agreeing to the currency exchange deal. The con appears to be working perfectly, but the stakes are raised when tensions with Butan and The King intensify.
Opposition
The con grows increasingly complex and dangerous. Butan becomes more threatening, The King's patience wears thin, trust within the crew fractures, and Jake's feelings for Lily create vulnerability in his armor of confidence.
Collapse
The con goes wrong during the final exchange. Gunther Butan is killed, Lily appears to betray Jake, and Jake is shot. Everything falls apart - the whiff of death is literal as Jake bleeds out, his confidence shattered.
Crisis
Jake processes the betrayal and loss. In his darkest moment, wounded and alone, he must confront whether his confidence was justified or if he's been played the entire time.
Act III
ResolutionSecond Threshold
Jake realizes the deeper game being played and synthesizes all the information. He understands the true nature of the con and who's been playing whom, gaining clarity to execute the final move.
Synthesis
The multiple layers of the con are revealed through flashbacks and reveals. The true scheme unfolds, showing how Jake played everyone. The King is taken down, and the final pieces fall into place.
Transformation
Final image: Jake walks away, having evolved from confident grifter to masterful strategist who played the ultimate long con. His confidence was earned, not hubris - but at the cost of genuine connection with Lily.