Next Goal Wins
Dutch coach Thomas Rongen attempts the nearly impossible task of turning the American Samoa soccer team from perennial losers into winners.
Working with a modest budget of $14.0M, the film achieved a respectable showing with $18.1M in global revenue (+29% profit margin).
Plot Structure
Story beats plotted across runtime
Narrative Arc
Emotional journey through the story's key moments
Story Circle
Blueprint 15-beat structure
Arcplot Score Breakdown
Weighted: Precision (70%) + Arc (15%) + Theme (15%)
Next Goal Wins (2023) exemplifies strategically placed narrative architecture, characteristic of Taika Waititi's storytelling approach. This structural analysis examines how the film's 15-point plot structure maps to proven narrative frameworks across 1 hour and 44 minutes. With an Arcplot score of 6.7, the film balances conventional beats with creative variation.
Structural Analysis
The Status Quo at 1 minutes (1% through the runtime) establishes American Samoa suffers their historic 31-0 defeat to Australia, establishing them as the worst national soccer team in the world. The opening image shows complete humiliation and rock bottom.. The analysis reveals that this early placement immediately immerses viewers in the story world.
The inciting incident occurs at 13 minutes when Thomas Rongen is essentially exiled to American Samoa as punishment, tasked with coaching the worst team in the world. He arrives bitter, resistant, and seeing this as rock bottom for his career.. At 12% through the film, this Disruption aligns precisely with traditional story structure. This beat shifts the emotional landscape, launching the protagonist into the central conflict.
The First Threshold at 26 minutes marks the transition into Act II, occurring at 25% of the runtime. This indicates the protagonist's commitment to Rongen commits to actually coaching the team. He chooses to embrace the challenge rather than mail it in, beginning real training and recruiting Jaiyah to play despite controversy. This is his active choice to engage with the journey., moving from reaction to action.
At 53 minutes, the Midpoint arrives at 51% of the runtime—precisely centered, creating perfect narrative symmetry. Structural examination shows that this crucial beat American Samoa suffers another devastating loss in a crucial qualifier. Despite improvement, they're still losing badly. The stakes raise as qualification seems impossible and Rongen's redemption arc appears doomed. False defeat - they're better but still not good enough., fundamentally raising what's at risk. The emotional intensity shifts, dividing the narrative into clear before-and-after phases.
The Collapse moment at 79 minutes (76% through) represents the emotional nadir. Here, Rongen has an explosive outburst that echoes his past failure, alienating the team. Everything falls apart - players consider quitting, Jaiyah feels betrayed, and Rongen faces that he hasn't actually changed. His dream of redemption dies as he realizes he's repeated his worst mistakes., reveals the protagonist at their lowest point. This beat's placement in the final quarter sets up the climactic reversal.
The Second Threshold at 85 minutes initiates the final act resolution at 81% of the runtime. Rongen has a breakthrough realization: redemption isn't about winning, it's about showing up authentically for others. He apologizes genuinely to the team, embracing vulnerability. The team chooses to play their final match not for qualification but for dignity and joy. New synthesis of coaching skill plus emotional authenticity., demonstrating the transformation achieved throughout the journey.
Emotional Journey
Next Goal Wins's emotional architecture traces a deliberate progression across 15 carefully calibrated beats.
Narrative Framework
This structural analysis employs structural analysis methodology used to understand storytelling architecture. By mapping Next Goal Wins against these established plot points, we can identify how Taika Waititi utilizes or subverts traditional narrative conventions. The plot point approach reveals not only adherence to structural principles but also creative choices that distinguish Next Goal Wins within the comedy genre.
Taika Waititi's Structural Approach
Among the 6 Taika Waititi films analyzed on Arcplot, the average structural score is 7.0, demonstrating varied approaches to story architecture. Next Goal Wins takes a more unconventional approach compared to the director's typical style. For comparative analysis, explore the complete Taika Waititi filmography.
Comparative Analysis
Additional comedy films include The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, The Bad Guys and Lake Placid. For more Taika Waititi analyses, see Jojo Rabbit, Thor: Love and Thunder and Hunt for the Wilderpeople.
Plot Points by Act
Act I
SetupStatus Quo
American Samoa suffers their historic 31-0 defeat to Australia, establishing them as the worst national soccer team in the world. The opening image shows complete humiliation and rock bottom.
Theme
Jaiyah tells Thomas Rongen about acceptance and being true to yourself. The theme of redemption through embracing who you really are, not who you pretend to be, is established.
Worldbuilding
We meet disgraced coach Thomas Rongen, whose career has collapsed after a violent outburst. The American Samoa team is introduced - a ragtag group of amateurs with day jobs. Jaiyah, a fa'afafine player, seeks acceptance. The island culture and impossible odds are established.
Disruption
Thomas Rongen is essentially exiled to American Samoa as punishment, tasked with coaching the worst team in the world. He arrives bitter, resistant, and seeing this as rock bottom for his career.
Resistance
Rongen resists the assignment, clashes with the team's lack of discipline and skill, and struggles with the island culture. He debates whether to even try or just run out the clock. The team shows him their heart despite their limitations. Jaiyah becomes a bridge between Rongen and understanding what matters.
Act II
ConfrontationFirst Threshold
Rongen commits to actually coaching the team. He chooses to embrace the challenge rather than mail it in, beginning real training and recruiting Jaiyah to play despite controversy. This is his active choice to engage with the journey.
Mirror World
Rongen's relationship with Jaiyah deepens. She represents the thematic counterpoint - someone who has found peace with identity while Rongen hides from his failures. The team becomes a surrogate family, teaching Rongen about authentic connection versus ego.
Premise
The fun of watching underdogs train and improve. Rongen implements actual strategy, the team bonds, and small victories emerge. Jaiyah gains confidence. Rongen begins to care about these players as people. They prepare for qualifying matches with growing hope despite continued losses.
Midpoint
American Samoa suffers another devastating loss in a crucial qualifier. Despite improvement, they're still losing badly. The stakes raise as qualification seems impossible and Rongen's redemption arc appears doomed. False defeat - they're better but still not good enough.
Opposition
Pressure intensifies as losses mount. Internal conflicts emerge - Jaiyah faces discrimination, team members doubt the mission, and Rongen's old demons resurface. His anger issues threaten to derail everything. The opposition isn't just other teams but Rongen's own inability to change and the team's internalized defeat.
Collapse
Rongen has an explosive outburst that echoes his past failure, alienating the team. Everything falls apart - players consider quitting, Jaiyah feels betrayed, and Rongen faces that he hasn't actually changed. His dream of redemption dies as he realizes he's repeated his worst mistakes.
Crisis
Rongen sits in the darkness of his failure, processing that winning games won't redeem him if he hasn't changed as a person. The team grapples with whether to continue. Rongen must face his authentic self - flawed, broken, but capable of genuine connection rather than just tactical success.
Act III
ResolutionSecond Threshold
Rongen has a breakthrough realization: redemption isn't about winning, it's about showing up authentically for others. He apologizes genuinely to the team, embracing vulnerability. The team chooses to play their final match not for qualification but for dignity and joy. New synthesis of coaching skill plus emotional authenticity.
Synthesis
The finale match against Tonga. American Samoa plays with heart, skill, and unity. Rongen coaches with passion but also compassion. The team executes the plan while supporting each other. They score their first goal, then win 2-1 - their first-ever victory. True redemption achieved through transformation, not just results.
Transformation
Rongen celebrates with the team as equals, no longer the arrogant coach but a humble member of a community. Jaiyah is fully embraced and celebrated. The closing image mirrors the opening defeat but shows transformation - they're still underdogs, but now they're underdogs with dignity, joy, and authentic connection.